Back in 2017 a relative of mine posted a graph about a death involving a gun. Along with the link, he wrote “Everyone has guns and everyone dies.” I wrote and posted an essay in response. I set aside any preconceptions and did the research. I was always a Second Amendment guy, but maybe I was wrong. So I dug in. My conclusion was that the gun violence hype was overblown.

Yesterday I ran across that old essay and decided to revisit my conclusions. I pulled the newest data and took a fresh look. So here is that essay, rethought and rewritten for 2026…

I’m sure some will label me a cold, heartless, gun-toting, far-right wacko for saying this, but gun deaths are still a statistical non-issue in 2026 when you look at the bigger picture. Back in 2017 I saw a post claiming everyone has guns and anyone can die, with the usual graph comparing U.S. gun homicides to the rest of the world. So I did what I always do and went looking for the actual numbers.

The graph my relative showed in 2017 had a big bar for the United States at the top. Easy to glance at it and think we have a massive problem. The real number behind it, updated for today? About 4.5 gun homicides per 100,000 people in 2024. That is roughly 0.0045%. Yes, it is higher than some other developed countries. But is the difference big enough to declare our whole society unsafe? Not when you zoom out.

Here is how Americans actually die, according to the original 2017 data I cited:

  • Heart Disease and Cancer – 1 in 7

  • Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease – 1 in 28

  • Intentional Self-harm (suicide) – 1 in 95

  • Unintentional Poisoning – 1 in 96

  • Motor Vehicle Crash – 1 in 114

  • Fall – 1 in 127

  • Assault by Firearm – 1 in 370

For comparison, here is how Americans die according to the data we have now:

  • Heart disease or cancer - about 1 in 6 or 7

  • Unintentional injuries (including overdoses) - a top-3 killer overall

  • Suicide (all methods) - 1 in roughly 90-100

  • Motor vehicle crash - 1 in 100+

  • Fall - still more likely for many people than getting shot

  • Assault by firearm - roughly 1 in 300-370 depending on the exact table

You have better odds of dying from a fall than from being shot in an assault. We never talk about banning ladders or stairs. We accept those risks as part of life.

Total gun deaths in 2024 came in around 44,000. More than 58% of them were suicides. That is the part people usually leave out when they throw around the raw “gun deaths” number. Guns make a suicide attempt more lethal when someone is in crisis, no question. But lumping them in with murders to scare people about “gun violence” is misleading.

I looked at Australia back in 2017, and I looked at it again. People still cite the country as an example of gun control success. After the 1996 buyback and strict laws, their homicide rate dropped from around 1.8-1.9 per 100,000 down to about 0.9 today. Firearm homicides fell too. But the downward trend in homicides was already happening before the law passed. The number of “lives saved” per 100,000 is still tiny in the grand scheme. Australia had (and has) a much lower baseline homicide rate than we do regardless of guns. Worth noting, but it is not the clean “gun control fixed everything” story it gets sold as. I also pointed out then - and it still holds - that suddenly at-risk groups such as women lost easy access to a means of self-defense. Assaultive crimes like rape saw increases in reported rates in the years that followed. There is always more to the story, and that “more” is not always pretty.

The old “88 guns per 100 people” line still gets used today as it did nine years ago. Reality: about 32% of U.S. adults personally own a gun. Around 40% live in a household with one. Not “everyone has guns.” Plenty of owners have more than one, especially for hunting or sport. Less than half of us have chosen to arm ourselves.

So what does it all mean? To me it still means we are in a big emotional tizzy over the tool instead of the people using it. When guns are not available, violence finds other ways - knives, cars, whatever is at hand. Mass stabbings happen in places with tight gun laws. They just do not get the same endless coverage.

The real problem is cultural. We have spent generations watering down personal accountability, rejecting higher moral standards, undermining the family, and handing values education over to institutions that do not share our beliefs. We do not make good people like we used to. That is not a gun problem. That is a people problem.

Our Founders understood an armed population as a check on government and a defense against invasion. That principle still holds. The data never convinced me we should trade it away over a statistical non-issue.

I approached this the same way I did nine years ago - honestly looking for the truth. I still do not see a case for upending a founding right based on the numbers. The device that goes “bang” is not the root cause. The condition of the human heart is.

I’m open to your thoughts. Share it if you want, whether you agree or not.

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